The Office for National Statistics has recently released annual statistics on divorces that took place in 2010 following court orders in England and Wales.

Key findings of the report include:

• the number of divorces in England and Wales rose by 4.9% in 2010 to 119,589 compared with 113,949 in 2009. This is the first annual increase in divorces since 2003 when there were 153,065 divorces (up from 147,735 in 2002),
• the divorce rate rose in 2010 to 11.1 divorcing people per thousand married population from 10.5 in 2009,
• 22% of marriages in 1970 had ended in divorce by the 15th wedding anniversary, whereas 33% of marriages in 1995 had ended after the same period of time, and
• the number of divorces in 2010 was highest among men and women aged 40 to 44.

The small rise in the divorce rate and the number of divorces in 2010 could be associated with the economic climate following the 2008-09 recession. According to the bulletin, two competing theories exist relating to the effect of an economic downturn on the number of partnerships dissolving.

One theory suggests that recession could contribute to a rise in partnership break-ups because of increased financial strain, changes in employment and related lifestyle changes. In addition some individuals may believe they will get a more favourable divorce settlement if their income is currently low.

In contrast, an alternative theory suggests that partnerships would be less likely to dissolve in an unfavourable economic climate since couples would be less able to end the partnership for financial reasons – these may include the cost of lawyers, negative equity in housing or not being able to afford to maintain two households following divorce. There is also the argument that family may be valued more highly than material goods during tough economic times. Any impact of the recession on divorce is likely to vary across different sectors of society.

It is too early to say whether the rise in divorces in 2010 will continue or is related to the economic climate. The figures show that divorce rates continued their downward trend during 2008 and 2009 but increased in 2010. This could be consistent with the theory that recession is associated with an increased risk of divorce, but with a delayed impact, perhaps reflecting a couples wait for an economic recovery to lift the value of their assets or the time lag between separation and obtaining a decree absolute. A similar trend can be seen during the previous recession in 1990-92, where divorce rates increased more markedly in 1993 than during  the recession itself.